Sneak Peak: How Many Hispanics Will Vote During Mid-Term Elections?

Daniel Garza Uncategorized

In November, millions of Americans will head to the polls to vote in U.S. House, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. Of those millions, Hispanics will be a key population, as a record 29.2 million Latinos will be eligible to vote. 

Voter turnout among the Latino community is still below the national average, but our influence continues to expand. Political candidates on both sides of the aisle are taking notice.   

The third iteration of The LIBRE Institute’s Hispanic Margin of Victory Project analyzes the Hispanic electorate in 2018. That includes 13 House races, three Senate races and six gubernatorial races. Here’s a sneak peek at three key races and their estimated Hispanic electorates: 


U.S. House: Texas, Congressional District 23  


Will Hurd (R), incumbent 

Gina Ortiz Jones (D)  

·        An estimated 20.6 percent of Hispanic eligible voters will head to the polls in Texas in November. 

·        Hispanics will cast an estimated 63,941 ballots.  

·        At these estimates, Hispanics would represent 40.7 percent of the total vote in TX 23— more than 30 times greater than the 1.3 percent margin of victory in 2016. 


U.S. Senate: Nevada 


Dean Heller (R), incumbent 

Jacky Rosen (D) 

·        An estimated 29.3 percent of Hispanic eligible voters will head to the polls in Nevada in November.  

·        Hispanics will cast an estimated 113,335 ballots. 

·        At these estimates, Hispanics would represent 15.7 percent of the total vote — more than six times greater than the 2.4 percent margin of victory in 2016.  


Gubernatorial: Colorado 


Walker Stapleton (R)  

Jared Polis (D)  

·        An estimated 38.4 percent of Hispanic eligible voters will head to the polls in Colorado in November. 

·         Hispanics will cast and estimated 244,511 ballots. 

·         At these estimates, Hispanics would represent 10 percent of the total vote — more than three times greater than the 3.3 percent margin of victory in 2014.   

Latinos are the nation’s second-largest population group. As our communities grow, so too will our influence on American politics. It would be ill-advised for a candidate to ignore the Hispanic electorate. 

The data within the report should also signal to our communities that the Hispanic vote matters. Our votes could be the margin of victory.  

Click here to view the Hispanic Margin of Victory Project 2018 in full.