(Arlington, VA) – Today The LIBRE Institute released the third edition of the Hispanic Margin of Victory Project (Hispanic MVP) report. This report projects Hispanic turnout for races in the House of Representatives and Senate, as well as gubernatorial races around the country, based on recent history. It also notes the margin of victory in recent races. Based on these data points, the report identifies a number of key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races where the Hispanic vote may prove decisive.
- The Latino vote has the potential to prove decisive in 22 key races – 13 in the House of Representatives, 3 in the U.S. Senate, and 6 gubernatorial races.
- This represents a significant increase from previous years. In 2014, the Hispanic MVP report identified 19 such races. In 2016, the number was 13.
- Based on projections obtained through linear regression analysis using previous turnout rates, we estimate that 30.9 percent of eligible Hispanic voters will turn out in Arizona; 20.5 percent in California; 38.4 percent in Colorado; 33.3 percent in Connecticut; 40.8 percent in Florida; 22.5 percent in Illinois; 29.3 percent in Nevada; 24.8 percent in New Mexico; and, 20.6 percent in Texas.
View the 2018 Hispanic MVP Report HERE
Daniel Garza, President of The LIBRE Institute, released the following statement:
“With each passing year, the voice of the Latino community becomes more and more influential in American culture and politics. In recent years, the Hispanic MVP report has done a great job of identifying key races in which the Latino community – through the power of the vote – may decide who represents a state or district. In 2018, we project that there will be 13 races in the House of Representatives, 3 Senate races, and 6 gubernatorial elections in which the Hispanic vote may be decisive. It will be critical for candidates of any party to win the support of Latinos by showing that they are listening, and they have a plan to make the lives of those constituents better.”
View the 2016 Hispanic MVP Report HERE
View the 2014 Hispanic MVP Report HERE